Opinions are divided among the main analysts. The growth of the last year, estimated at around 4%, is acceptable from the perspective of some sectors that assume it as the basis of a better performance during 2019. On the other hand, economists such as Roberto Abused, president of the Peruvian Institute of Economics (PIE), argue that we are in a situation in which the factors of the economy do not converge in a decisive way towards development.
In other words, although the country's macroeconomic indicators have been solid in the last two decades, there is still a high level of poverty and, as happened in 2017, when this variable had a hypo of 1%, the risk that those who have stopped being poor become so again is very high.
Peru's growth potential is around 6%. If between now and 2021 we grew at this rate, poverty would be reduced from the current 22% to 17.5%. However, if we kept the current average of 4%, by the year of the Bicentennial Peru would have 18.6% of its population in poverty. At this level it will also not be possible to absorb the demand for labour.
Regarding the employment field, August Ceres, dean of our Business School, states that “in Peru we currently have around 700,000 unemployed people. But we also have more than 7 million underemployed, which means that they are not receiving adequate remuneration.
How to get out of this state of affairs?
There is consensus that one of the main causes of Peru's economic stagnation in the last five years is the drop in public and private investment. Based on the year 2013, when investments totalled US $ 55,000 million, the US $ 48,000 million achieved during 2018 denotes a worrying decline. It is estimated that only the investments paralysed in mining in this period exceed US $ 13,000 million.
Elmer Cuba, economist and partner at Macro consult, has stated that a 0% growth in public investment this year would already be a success. "Two thirds of public investment will fall, while a third - which is from the central government - will increase, and on average it is zero. Achieving this would be a success because the average has been negative in the last three elections,” he notes.
Abused considers that in this context “the macroeconomic strength of Peru is not enough to guarantee convergence to development. Sensible public policies and the reconstruction of the institutional framework are needed. Looking closely at what happened in 2018, we see that little or nothing has been done in terms of structural reforms in the economic or institutional sphere.
In the opinion of the representative of the PIE, the areas in which the government must work urgently are in the first place the lobar reform, given that the current legislation creates obstacles to access adequate employment and affects productivity, growth and well-being Social. In the same way, he points out that " the unitary character of the nation must be recovered, since the process of marginalization's has dismembered the country into an ungovernable archipelago" and the largest demonstrations in this regard have been taking place in recent weeks with governors who have just assumed their positions. charges. Finally, it demands the implementation of a « profound regulatory reform to put an end to the tangle of useless procedures in order to give citizens back the freedom to create wealth.
Abused points out that these are monumental tasks, but without them the convergence to development that we need will be impossible.
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